POSEIDON models the underlying mathematics of competition. Every match, every quarter, every play is treated as a probabilistic event whose outcome distribution can be estimated, refined, and updated in real time.
The platform combines hierarchical Bayesian inference, Monte Carlo simulation, market-implied probability extraction, and a continuously-recalibrated rating system. The output is not a prediction. The output is a probability distribution — auditable, time-stamped, and back-tested against history.
POSEIDON is built to extend across major competitive sports — each sport gets its own model, training corpus, and published calibration record. Today that's live for the NBA, with college football analytics alongside. We do not claim to know who will win. We claim to know how likely each outcome is, with the math to prove it.
Complete TIDAL analytics on 30 NBA and 135 FBS teams — current record, splits, recent form, head-to-head matchups, Bayesian strength rating.
Open Teams →Real-time game-by-game evaluation against the model. De-vigged edge, expected value, Kelly stakes — and explicit "no bet" calls when edge is absent.
Open Forecast →Same Bayesian math we use to price spreads, now applied to every fantasy decision — every player, every prop, every night. NFL and NBA live; MLB and Soccer next. Free curriculum, free projections, free forever.
Open Fantasy →Hierarchical Bayesian Poisson regression. Walk-forward backtesting. The Council of Mathematicians whose work backs every calculation. Read the math.
Open Methodology →Every prediction, every outcome, plotted against expectation. Brier —, — on the held-out 2025-26 season (— games), calibration curve published. Trust earned, not claimed.
Open Calibration →Expected value calculator. Bankroll Monte Carlo with Kelly sizing. Fat tails analysis. Luck-vs-skill via Pythagorean expectation. Run your own numbers.
Open Sandbox →Self-maintained admin checklist. Stage tracker, architecture decisions log, deferred items registry. Where the project actually stands at any moment.
Open Admin →The model gives you the probability. The market gives you the price. The sandbox tells you whether to bet, how much, and what your edge actually is.
The Bayesian engine that prices spreads now prices your roster. Every projection — every player, every prop, every night — comes from the live betting market, calibrated against actuals, not pundit opinions.